SCC Preview: Can Johnson pull off Dover sweep?

At the end of May, Jimmie Johnson had another scary-good performance on the Monster Mile, leading 298 of the 400 laps to capture his fourth career win at Dover. It reminded me of 2002, when the Lowe's Chevrolet driver swept both races in Delaware. I think Johnson is about to break out the broom again in Sunday's AAA 400.

To go along with his four trips to Victory Lane, Johnson's average finish at Dover in 15 starts is 8.4, and he's trending in a positive direction. In his past three appearances on the concrete, 1-mile oval, he has finished seventh, fifth and first. Plus, he's coming off a solid top-5 in the opening Chase race in New Hampshire. You also can count on him for at least five bonus points, if not 10, because Johnson has led in the past 10 Dover races for a total of 935 laps.

There are a few who will apply pressure to the three-time defending Sprint Cup champ, though. One should be Tony Stewart. It's not just that he was the runner-up earlier this year or that he has won twice or that he has recorded 10 top-5 finishes at Dover. I have two other reasons. One, Stewart had a potential winning or at least top-5 performance at Loudon this past week when his team shot itself in the foot with a mechanical problem. When that has happened in the past, Stewart usually has come back hard and strong the next week. Second, he swept the Dover races in 2000. What worked for him in the first race that year worked again when he returned in the fall.

What about Mark Martin? New Hampshire hadn't been one of his better tracks, but then he goes out and wins the race. Martin might be at a point where past stats don't mean much. He has some positive momentum with four straight top-5 runs, with an average finish of 3.0 in that span, and he has put up some monster numbers at Dover. In the past 11 starts there, he has grabbed a win and six top-5s, averaging 7.3. Adding up all he has done in Delaware, Martin has four victories, 21 top-5s, 29 top-10s and more than 1,700 laps led.

Another guy to keep an eye on is Greg Biffle. He's the race's defending winner, a victory that was sandwiched between third-place runs in the past two spring races at Dover. In the past nine events on the high-banked track, Biffle has been almost a lock for a top-5. In that stretch, he has won twice and registered six top-5 finishes, including the past four outings, with an average finish of 4.5.

Some other drivers I think will run strong Sunday include Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch.

Gordon stumbled home 26th in May, but in the five previous Dover races, he was top-10 four times with a worst finish of 11. Oh yeah, he has won three times too.

This has been a pretty tough place for Kurt Busch in the past, but he was fifth in May and is coming off a solid sixth-place outing in Loudon.

Admittedly, things have been pretty ugly for Kenseth lately, but Dover is one of his favorite places to compete. In the past seven races there, he has a win, five top-5s and six top-10s. The only blemish in that string was a 35th because of a blown engine.

When it comes to Newman, you can always count on him for a solid effort at Dover with three wins and a runner-up. He was eighth in May, and his new team certainly is running better now than it did back then. Newman was seventh at Loudon.

In the past six races, Edwards certainly hasn't been intimidated by the Monster Mile, as he has registered a win and an average finish of 3.0, finishing no worse than seventh. In the 10 starts he has made at Dover, Edwards has never come home worse than 18th and has a very sporty average finish of 7.6.

As for Kyle Busch, he might have stubbed his toe in the past two Dover races, but in the previous two, he had a win and a fifth-place finish. This is a hunch, but I believe Busch will be back in form at Dover this weekend.

As for some of the lower-priced drivers you might be able to squeeze onto your Stock Car Challenge team, keep track of Martin Truex Jr., Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick in practice and qualifying. Going even lower, Sam Hornish Jr. will be worth some thought, as will Reed Sorenson, A.J. Allmendinger, Regan Smith, David Ragan, David Gilliland and Bobby Labonte.

Big Bucks (SCC Value 22.0 and up)

Up on top, I really like Jimmie Johnson (23.5) and Tony Stewart (23.4). They are going to get so expensive that you won't be able to get them on your team in a few weeks. So, the time to pick one of these guys is now. Mark Martin (22.8) is the other guy I really like in this group. Ryan Newman (22.0), Kurt Busch (22.9) and Jeff Gordon (23.1) also will give a shot at a chunk of points Sunday.

Serious Coin (SCC Value 20.0 to 22.0)

Greg Biffle (21.5) is the main man in this group, followed by teammate Carl Edwards (21.8). The sleeper in this group could be Matt Kenseth (20.8). He's a dark-horse top-5 candidate with strong top-10 potential. I think you also could get a quality start out of Kyle Busch (21.5) and possibly Kasey Kahne (21.5). Another guy to think about here is Clint Bowyer (21.1).

Budget Boys (SCC Value 13.0 to 20.0)

I was impressed with Dale Earnhardt Jr. (17.6) last week. I also think Kevin Harvick (17.6) and Martin Truex Jr. (17.6) should get some interest. Going a little lower, Sam Hornish Jr. (16.1) is a possibility, as are Reed Sorenson (15.7) and teammate A.J. Allmendinger (16.9). If there's a need to go even lower, there's potentially David Ragan (15.3), David Stremme (15.1) and David Gilliland (13.6).

Debit … Not Credit

Among the drivers with top values, I'd stay away from Denny Hamlin (23.3) this week. He had a solid performance at New Hampshire, but Dover has been a tough place for him to come up with consistently good finishes. In the Serious Coin category, I'm not a big fan of Juan Pablo Montoya this week. You can save some money and probably get a better finish from Biffle or Edwards. This also has been a good place for Brian Vickers.

Guru Garrow's Gang

I started off the final segment of the Stock Car Challenge with 715 points, decent, but nothing to write home about. I had three of the top four with Martin, Johnson and Montoya. Unfortunately, Truex did a late-race fade, as did Stremme. Both ran in the top-5 at one point. At this point, I'm going to keep the same team locked in, but will be looking at Harvick and Dale Jr. as possible trades for Truex. I might also drop down and swap Kenseth for Montoya, which would open up the amount of money I can put toward my "floor" driver.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.